A Simple Model for the Total Number of SARS-CoV-2 Infections on a National Level

Blanco N, Stafford K, Lavoie MC, Brandenburg A, Gorna MW, Merski M

Epidemiology & Infection (2021) 149:e80 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821000649

Matt Merski in collaboration with colleagues in the USA describe a simpler way to predict the growing number of cases in the early stage of an epidemic such as COVID-19.

We use a quadratic approximation to predict the increase in the total number of cases. Our method compares on par with other currently available approaches (and far outperforms the exponential model) in early stages when the parameters of the spread remain yet unknown.

Our work was previously available as a preprint on the arXiv.org.

Prospective Prediction of Future SARS-CoV-2 Infections Using Empirical Data on a National Level to Gauge Response Effectiveness.

Blanco N, Stafford K, Lavoie MC, Brandenburg A, Gorna MW, Merski M.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.02712